Market Report

Weekend Cotton Bullets – 25/09/2022

Macros take centre stage!

If it wasn't for the last minute nothing would get done!

CTZ22 – 92.54 – (-4.00)
CTH23 – 89.67 – (-4.00)
CTK23 – 87.49 – (-3.98)
CTN23 – 84.78 – (-4.00)
CTZ23 – 77.24 – (-3.29)

Zhengzhou CF301 – 13,995 – (-125)

Cotlook “A” Index – 115.35 – (+0.50)

Daily volume – 21,923
AWP – 88.88
Open interest – 214,530
Certificated stock – 54

Z22/H23 spread – (+2.87)
Z22/Z23 spread – (+15.30)

December Options Expiry – 11th November 2022
December 1st Notice Day – 23rd November 2022

Introduction

– Another awful week for Cotton with prices dropping 675 points to close limit down for the 2nd Friday in a row at 92.54, having traded in a 720 point range between 92.54 and 99.74. Volume was impressive averaging 33,940 futures daily, whilst options were even more active trading 15,098 daily, with calls once again much more active than puts.
– The CFTC COT report showed Managed Money (MM) as sellers for the third week in a row. MM sold a net 6,040, whilst Other Reportables (OR) bought a net 488 and Non Reportables (NR) sold a net 1,298. Between MM, OR and NR their net long is 45,650 contracts or 4.565mb.
– We repeat that this remains a fairly long position that is losing a huge amount of money and will weigh much more on the market in the short term, than the bleating and bullish cries of a heavily losing and crowded long that boringly continue to shout about a small USA crop but ignore (as always) the bigger picture!
– In all likelihood we are likely to put in a short term bottom in the days ahead but the bounce will almost certainly be another “suckers rally” in what we continue to believe will be a painful inverse season that hurts the majority!

– A look at the above chart tells you all you need to know right now. The Fibonacci levels have largely been respected against the 133.79 Z22 seasonal high versus the 82.54 seasonal low. For that reason we believe that the 90.47 Fib level is likely to hold in the short term on a closing basis.
– Longer term however, it seems inevitable that a test and likely break of the seasonal low so far at 82.54 seems likely!
– The strength of the US$ index in the latter part of last week has hammered almost every commodity as long and wrong funds face a difficult decision as to weather the storm or just get out!
– As far as EAP is concerned we think the pain is not over and we believe the US$ Index goes even higher which in turn means all commodities will get hit even harder early next week! The chart speaks for itself!

– The S&P500 in September has had its worst month of the year so far as Fed Chairman Jay Powell makes it quite clear that interest rate rises will continue in their efforts to fight inflation.
– It seems inevitable that there will be a worldwide recession and Friday’s bearish price action in Commodities and Equities has done nothing to dent that viewpoint!

Conclusion

EAP believe that any rallies in the Cotton market from 96.69 up to the 200 day moving average at 105.98 should be sold. We would be surprised to see Z22 exceed the recent high at 108.10 for the rest of this season. Longer term, EAP remain of the belief that the 22/23 season will prove to be an inverted one, with the final low at the end of the season. Scale up selling into any strength over the coming days will likely prove to be prudent.

Useful links

*Please note that we only share CFTC CTO on weekend reports. 

Written by:

Jo Earlam

Jo Earlam

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