- Chris Williams
- July 28, 2022
- 8:54 pm
- 10 min read
A concerning economic outlook
The capacity to learn is a gift; the ability to learn is a skill; the willingness to learn is a choice.
CTZ22 96.21 (+1.14)
CTH23 92.67 (+1.21)
CTK23 91.15 (+1.28)
Zhengzhou CF209 – 14,860 (+35)
Cotlook “A” Index – 129.90 (+2.70) – 27th July
Daily volume – 13,355
AWP – 103.96
Open interest – 184,989
Certificated stock – 8,277
Dec / March spread – (+3.54)
September Options Expiry – 19th August 2022
December Options Expiry – 11th November 2022
December 1st Notice Day – 23rd November 2022
Introduction
– The summer is upon us and the news is thin! The market does appear to be settling into a range and seems to be slowly working it’s way higher to test the top end, perhaps towards a dollar. It would certainly seem that we would need an external event to move the market significantly in one direction or the other. The front month Dec ’22 closed today at 96.21 up 114 points for the day.
– Arrivals are gathering pace in Brazil and farmers’ main focus is upon fulfilling forward orders to the merchant community. However, we are hearing reports on the ground of the crop coming in of a lower quality than was expected and of a number of rejections on take up.
– The macro outlook continues to deteriorate. The Fed yesterday implemented their second consecutive 75 basis point rise in interest rates in order to attempt to combat ever rising inflation. Meanwhile, US GDP fell for the second quarter in a row, meaning that the country is now, technically, in a recession. None of this bodes well for consumption.
– The USDA Crop Progress Report published Monday showed a continued deterioration of the crop condition. We are now well past the point where the Texas crop can be saved and the only question remaining is how bad a number will we see.
– The USDA export report for the week ending 21st July reflected the abysmal demand seen in the market. For the soon to be no longer 2021/22 season net reductions of 4,000 bales were reported. For the new crop 2022/23 season we saw meagre sales of 55,700 bales reported. Exports carried on the disappointing tone of the report with 252,900 bales reported as shipped.
– CFTC cotton on call report, based positions on 22nd July showed little change in the net position. The overall current crop on call sales position stands at 61.503 contracts which is the fourth highest for this week of the year, whilst the Dec only position stands at 36,838 contracts which is the highest for this time.
Conclusion
Prices have held the recent 82.54 low and EAP suggest that a counter trend bounce may occur that could take prices as high as the low 100’s. Potentially, a test of the 200 day moving average is possible fuelled by some courageous end user physical buying and/or a hurricane inspired series of events. However, EAP maintain our longer term viewpoint that a final move to the 70’s will eventually play out by next May and the 22/23 season will prove to be an inverted season.
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*Please note that we only share CFTC CTO on weekend reports.
Written by:
Chris Williams
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