Weekly Analysis

Soybean report – 15/10/2022

Increase to Brazilian production in October's WASDE

Indices

Futures

Forex

– Weekly US export figures for soybeans rose this week but were the lowest for the the week since 2011. Last week export shipments were 93 million bushels short of hitting the USDA’s export target and this week it was 100 million short. Low water levels in the US are continuing to send business to South America, however the Mississippi River did re-open to barge traffic this week.
– Argentinian farmer sales dropped 79% in the start of October at 376,00, this was following the end of the government incentive for sales during September with the ‘soy dollar’. 22/23 crop is due to be planted soon with sales of new crop rose by 10% on the week with a total figure of 1.55 million million tonnes sold so far. This figure is 28% lower than last year.

– This months WASDE was released on Wednesday and the USDA reduced their US soybean crop figures with both yield and production receiving downgrades which was largely unexpected by trade analysts. Ending stocks remained the same which is mostly down to the fact that the export figure was also reduced.
– In South America the USDA increased Brazil’s production figure by 3 million tonnes from 149 to 152 million. Argentinian crop figures remained unchanged.

– The CFTC report from 11.10.22 saw Managed Money reduce their long position once again, this time by 7,963 contracts and increased their short position by 3,787. This left them with a net long position of 65,738, which is the lowest it has been all year as you can see from the graph above.
– OR reduced their long and short positions, leaving them with a net short 14,127 contracts. NR added to their long and short positions, they are net short 30,508.

– The November contract traded in a range of 48.8c, closing up 16.6c. The market broke out of that downward trend to the upside on Monday with a sharp move up before retreating slightly. It failed to close above the 38.2% retrace level on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. We see short term support at the 23.6% retrace level but after that there is little technical support other than the July low.
– Elliot Wave expect the market to continue down to 1200 by the end of November. They are expecting possible resistance at the July low of 1288.4.

Conclusion

With the current economic environment we are in, coupled with promising fundamentals, we think this downward move isn’t quite finished yet.

Written by:

Ben Williams

Ben Williams

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