- Jo Earlam
- June 18, 2022
- 3:51 pm
- 10 min read
Oil gets walloped! Is the direction of Oil the key to where Commodities go next?
Is the supply chain crisis about to get worse from here and persist for years to come?
CTN22 – 143.45 (-0.08)
CTZ22 – 118.29 (-0.94)
CTH23 – 114.15 (-0.73)
CTK23 – 110.87 (-0.61)
CTN23 – 107.54 (-0.45)
Zhengzhou CF209 – 19,390 (-165)
Cotlook “A” Forward Index – 135.60 (+1.25)
Daily volume – 23,739
AWP – 140.47
Open interest – 197,929
Certificated stock – 1,087
July/Dec spread – (+25.16)
Dec/Mch spread – (+4.14)
July 1st Notice Day – 24th June 2022
September Options Expiry – 19th August 2022
December Options Expiry – 11th November 2022
December 1st Notice Day – 23rd November 2022
Introduction
– As old crop N22 draws to a close, it has been another wild week with an average daily range of 300 points and N22 trading within a 500 point range between 142.50 and 147.50, before closing the week down 161 points. Open interest in N22 is down to just 18,551 contracts with just 3 business days to go until July 1st notice day. Overall open interest is now 197,929 and is the first time below 200,000 since mid August 2020.
– New crop Z22 paints a rather different picture trading in a 620 point range between 117.30 and 123.50 and finishing down 407 points from the previous Friday close. Volume has dropped off significantly following the end of the GSCI roll whilst puts and calls traded equally as traders question whether the spot price of Z22 can be justified in the face of limited physical demand!
– Volatility remains high with the average daily range for Z22 this month of 352 points.
– It is “Juneteenth” holiday in the USA on Monday, celebrating “Emancipation day” meaning there is a 4 day week next week with July 1st notice day on Friday.
– As we have previously documented, equities have had a bad week and the spill over may drift into commodities especially noting how hard Crude Oil was hit on Friday. The market touched the 50day moving average and whilst we believe we may see a small rally early next week it looks like a sell to us and could drag down the whole commodity complex as funds de-risk!
– The Fed announced another rise in interest rates on Wednesday, by 75 basis points, in their continued attempt to combat inflation, which is currently 8.6%. This was the biggest rise in interest rates since 1994. Interestingly, if we were to calculate todays inflation as it was calculated back in the 70s, the figure would be 13.5%, almost exactly what it was in 1979.
– The weekly CFTC COT report as of last Tuesday showed Managed Money (MM) to have bought a net 845 contracts. Frankly there were little changes elsewhere and their overall net long totals 79,857 contracts between MM, OR and NR. Looking closer, we can also guesstimate at what price their long is in Z22 based upon how Z22 has traded over the last month and during the roll period! We think that the average Z22 long held by MM is not too far away from the current price of Z22. A break of the recent low at 114.92 from the 2nd June would likely see a lot of these funds head for the exit!
– Levi Strauss updated their earnings guidance on Thursday, Their earnings per share guidance was $1.50 – $1.56, compared to the consensus earnings per share estimate of $1.55. Stifel Nicolaus lowered their price target on Levi Strauss & Co. from $30.00 to $26.00 earlier in the Month. All this week the price has been gapping down and whilst we may see a dead cat bounce in the days ahead we do not like the look of this chart! Judge for yourselves!
– On a technical point of view we do not like Cotton. We feel that stiff overhead resistance lies between 122.98 and 126.00 basis Z22. Below that we feel that the June 2nd low at 114.92 is likely to be tested and broken within the next days and weeks. Good support should be found between 103.84 and 110.69 where we might be persuaded to be a short term buyer in what we believe will be a rather volatile period!
Conclusion
We maintain that involvement in N22 is something to avoid if possible, but for new crop December we maintain this contract is very fully valued above 125c/lb and the recent spike in N22 offered a golden opportunity to lock in a good proportion of new crop sales 25c/lb higher than one could get just 6 weeks ago. Any bounces in Z22 to 122c/lb up to 130c/lb were we to get them, should be sold in our humble opinion.
Useful links
*Please note that we only share CFTC CTO on weekend reports.
Written by:
Jo Earlam
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