Market Report

Thursday Cotton Bullets – 23/02/2023

An uneventful week, an unremarkable Cotton Outlook report

CTK23 82.16 (+0.28)
CTN23 82.63 (+0.11)
CTZ23 82.22 (+0.14)

Zhengzhou WQK23 – 14,475 (+5)

Cotlook “A” Index – 96.85 (unch) – 22nd February

Daily volume – 18,787
AWP – 74.05
Open interest – 185,136
Certificated stock – 1,147

K23 / N23 spread – (-0.47)
N23 / Z23 spread – (+0.41)

May Options Expiry – 14th April 2023
May 1st Notice Day – 24th April 2023

Introduction

– The ICE trading week has been shortened by Monday’s US holiday. For the three days trading of the week, cotton has flatlined following the down move of last week which took us to the lowest level since 5th January (noting our very narrow recent range). The most that can be said of this week’s action is there is perhaps an element of base building at these levels, but otherwise it has been pretty unremarkable, exemplified by today’s low volume.

– EAP are currently in Pakistan where sentiment appears to be improving, The small number of mills visited so far are more optimistic about the future with positive comments around debt restructuring and subsequent improvements to USD liquidity. There are still some pockets of demand for mills that are integrated and with the ability to open LC’s. However, buyers and sellers still appear to have different price ideas.
– Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar has been looking at potential debt restructuring deal with Rothschilds & Co as an alternative to the proposed IMF deal. This is due to the highly punitive repayment terms which would almost certainly trigger a default. The USD shortage continues to weigh on the cotton market as there are just enough dollar reserves to cover roughly 10 – 14 days of Pakistan’s overall import requirements. It is important to note that this does not include dollar inflows from exports. Transmitted LC’s are delayed with priority being given for food, energy and other necessities. Exporters are also being looked upon more favourably than importers.
– Indian yarn exports for January were up 58% month on month over December, though down 29% on January 2022. This perhaps serves as a very good illustration of where textile demand is at this time: improving, but lagging the previous strong levels that drove us to the market highs in 2022.

– The USDA today released their Cotton Outlook report from the on-going Agricultural Outlook Forum . Cotton production is expected to increase less than 1% globally to 115 million bales as larger crops in USA and Pakistan are offset by decreases in China and Turkey, whilst India remains roughly unchanged.
– World cotton consumption is projected to increase by 4.4% to 115.5 million bales with a resulting ½ million bale decrease in stocks. Overall, these numbers are pretty well balanced and, should they come to pass, would not suggest any upcoming fireworks in cotton pricing.

– Due to Monday’s public holiday in USA the export sales report will be released tomorrow.
– The CFTC cotton on call report based on positions as of 17th February shows a reduction of 4,555 contracts for the current crop net on call sales position, though this can be attributed in large part to the expiring H23 contract. Interestingly, it seems that on call sales in H23 were fixed whilst on call purchases in the month were rolled to the K23. K23 now has the largest outright unfixed on call purchase position for this week of the year in the May contract, whilst the outright on call purchases for current crop is the second highest on record for the week. The net on call sales position for current crop stands at 25,458 contracts, which is only the 14th highest position out of 23 on record, for this week of the year.

Conclusion

With the market breaking to the downside at the end of last week and demand a key factor, we believe value is to be had in the low 80’s basis K23 and EAP would be a scale down buyer of Cotton from this level down to the long standing gap in the mid 70’s dating back to November were prices to reach there. Above we maintain that prices in the high 80’s has Cotton fully valued, with any move in to the 90’s to be considered a selling opportunity. We maintain that anticipated relatively wide trading range of 75 to 95c/lb is likely to prevail to the end of the season ending May 31st.

Useful links

*Please note that we only share CFTC CTO on weekend reports. 

Written by:

Chris Williams

Chris Williams

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