Funds get out of Cotton!
The second best day of your life is when you buy your 1st boat! The best day of your life is when you sell it!
CTZ22 79.13 (+1.73)
CTH23 78.55 (+1.29)
CTK23 78.15 (+1.11)
CTN23 77.08 (+0.84)
CTZ23 74.57 (-0.15)
Zhengzhou WQF23 – 13,295 (+70)
Cotlook “A” Index – 95.80 (-4.00) – From the 20th October
Daily volume – 43,713
AWP – 76.76
Open interest – 239,398
Certificated stock – 880
Z22/H23 spread – (+0.58)
Z22/Z23 spread – (+4.56)
December Options Expiry – 11th November 2022
December 1st Notice Day – 23rd November 2022
– In yet another volatile week for Cotton, prices traded in a wide range of 888 points before finishing the week down 402 points at 79.13 basis the Z22 contract. Volume picked up as the week progressed and averaged 37,272 futures daily.
– In options, the November series expired on Friday and volatility remains high at 45.73% and reflective of the fact that last week prices in Z22 averaged a 314 point intraday range!
– The CFTC COT report showed that funds had once again been in liquidation mode with Managed Money (MM) selling a net 4,812 to take their overall net long to 22,032 contracts. This was the 7th week in a row that they have sold Cotton and makes for their smallest long dating back to July 2020 when prices were in the 60’s. Other and Non Reportables now hold a net position of short 293 and long 1,993 contracts respectively. Between MM, OR and NR their overall net long is now down to a paltry 23,732 net contracts long.
– Whilst MM could actually go short we suspect that their selling is probably done for now and why we are fairly sure that in the coming days and weeks the market will settle down a lot into the trading range we suggested in our Thursday report!
– Thanks to our friends at IAG for the pictorial evidence of the funds current position!
– Following the writer’s visit to India last week and the undoubtedly gloomy outlook from all within the spinning sector we thought it worth looking at two of our favourite charts of Weiqao and Texhong being two of the largest spinning mills of the world.
– Regrettably there is noting to suggest either of these companies are portraying a turnaround for the spinning industry just yet!
– Technically Cotton still looks like it has further downside and see no reason to try to catch a falling knife. I was taught by one of the very best in the industry that it is better to miss the 1st 5-10% of a move than to try to preempt it and get it wrong!
– The chart of December below would suggest that a test of at least 70c is inevitable at some point during the season. In addition we have still yet to see the capitulation selling that usually accompanies the end of a move resulting in a big spike lower and subsequent intraday reversal. Some might argue we had that in Friday’s trade but we do not think so!
– There has been so much talk in the market about how cheap Z23 is compared to the big brothers of Soy Corn and Wheat and how farmers will just not plant Cotton. Charts of all are included below.
– We cannot disagree, but those crops are 12 months away or more from harvest and the planting decisions for most countries in the world are months away and have yet to be made!
– Most farmers will, if they are able, choose anything but Cotton today. However that decision cannot and will not be made for a few months at least.
– To our mind Z23 is cheap, but see no reason to go long of it just yet unless one chose to go short of new crop Corn or Soy at the same time!
We expect Cotton to calm down in the days and weeks ahead and expect to see the market settle into a range of 73-86 basis the Z22 contract. Longer term we expect the weakness to continue into the new calendar year with a final low towards the end of the season probably under 70c/lb, meaning a sell the rallies approach is likely to be fruitful.
*Please note that we only share CFTC CTO on weekend reports.
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