
- Ben Williams
- February 14, 2023
- 6:55 pm
- 10 min read
Big reductions to Argentina crop figures in February WASDE
Indices
Futures
Forex
– Brazilian harvest is currently at 17% of the planted area which is an 8% increase on last week, mainly due to Mato Grosso. The figure at the same point of last season was 24%, so it is still proving to be a slow harvest.
– US export figures have seen an increase over the last month and a lot of this is to do with the fact that Brazilian farmers have been so reluctant to sell forcing potential buyers elsewhere. Over January they posted above average export inspection figures.
– Argentina’s Rosario Grains exchange reduced their harvest figure from 37m tonnes to 34.5 which is significantly lower than the latest USDA figure of 41mt. With the expectation of more heat and a further lack of rains over the next few weeks, the fear is that the real figure could be nearer the bottom of that range. This is giving support to the market as it continues to trade in the upward sloping trend channel, and has definitely been helped by the slower Brazilian harvest.
– The February WASDE was released last Wednesday and the highlight was a big reduction to Argentinian figures for both corn and soy due to the ongoing drought there which has caused havoc to the crop yields. Brazils record crop figure remained unchanged.
– There was very little change to the US figures but the most notable was an increase in ending stocks for soy which came in higher than expected due to a reduction in crush. The export figure was unchanged.



– The March contract traded in a 37.6 cent range this week. Monday through to Wednesday saw the market lose around 27 cents with the low coming on Wednesday afternoon before closing back above the 78.6% level. On Friday the market made up 23 cents to close the week up. It no sits in the previously highlighted area of resistance, whether the market breaks above this area next week could be key.
– Elliot Wave say that the thrust out of the month long triangle is likely to hit new recent highs above the 1548.4 level and they see 1519 as the floor. On the monthly chart they remain bearish for the first half of 2023.


Conclusion
The market may continue to trend in this upward trend channel but we expect it to encounter overhead resistance fairly soon which we think will be followed by a downward move. With Brazil still looking set for a record crop we are bearish this market.
Written by:

Ben Williams
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