WASDE report – July 2023

The U.S. 2023/24 cotton projections show lower exports and higher beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are 50,000 bales higher due to lower 2022/23 disappearance, and 2023/24 exports are reduced 250,000 bales due to reductions in projected world trade and U.S. market share. U.S. planted area is 169,000 acres lower this month, as indicated in the June 30 Acreage report. Harvested area is up 117,000 acres however as rainfall in West Texas remains above median levels, and projected U.S. output remains at 16.5 million bales. Ending stocks are forecast at 3.8 million bales, 300,000 bales higher than in June. The projected price received by U.S. upland cotton producers is 76 cents per pound this month, 1 cent lower than in June.

For the global 2023/24 cotton balance sheet, higher beginning stocks account for much of the 1.7- million-bale increase in ending stocks. Beginning stocks are 1.1 million bales higher as a 1.8-million- bale increase in estimated 2022/23 production spread over India, Brazil, and Australia more than offsets a 675,000-bale increase in global consumption, and a 350,000-bale decrease in Argentina’s ending stocks. The Argentina change follows 10 years of historical balance sheet revisions. Projected world 2023/24 production is 120,000 bales higher this month as expected larger crops in Pakistan and Afghanistan offset a reduced outlook for Australia and Argentina. Consumption is projected 550,000 bales lower as reductions for China, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Vietnam more than offset improved prospects for Pakistan.