WASDE report – January 2023

This month’s U.S. 2022/23 cotton forecasts include higher production and ending stocks, no change in U.S. mill use, and lower exports. Production is 438,000 bales higher, at 14.7 million, with yield at a record 947 pounds per acre, up 9 percent from the December estimate. Exports are forecast 250,000 bales lower, at 12.0 million, with both projected world trade and the U.S. share slightly lower this month. Ending stocks are up 700,000 bales to 4.2 million, equal to 30 percent of projected use. The upland season-average price received by U.S. farmers is projected 2 cents lower this month at 83 cents per pound.

World 2022/23 ending stocks are forecast 370,000 bales higher this month as lower production is more than offset by a reduction in consumption. World production is forecast 330,000 bales lower than it was in December as lower production in India more than offsets gains in the United States and Brazil. Projected world consumption is 850,000 bales lower this month, at 110.9 million bales, a 5.7-percent decline from the previous year. Compared with the December outlook, India’s 2022/23 consumption is forecast 500,000 bales lower, with smaller declines for Indonesia and Vietnam. Projected world trade is down 600,000 bales, to 41.7 million, as projected exports from the United States, India, and Argentina decline. Imports by China, Indonesia, and Vietnam are also projected lower.