Brazil News

Domestic prices, weekly news and special reports about the world's second largest exporter of Cotton


  • Basis FOB Dec’23 for a Middling 36 has managed to increase 50 points since the beginning of the month, but we don’t see this level holding up, taking into consideration carry-over, production forecast and the poor export shipments numbers for the first 6 months of 2023. 
  • Harvesting in Brazil has started, 35% of 22/23 crop has been harvested. 
  • EAP forecasts carryover from 22/23 to be at least 550,000 tonnes. 3/4 of that in the hands of merchants. 
  • EAP forecasts a production of 3.2 million tonnes of cotton lint. 
  • According to IMEA, 99% of 21/22 crop has been sold. 72% of 22/23 crop is sold, which is 8,37% behind compared to the 5-year average. Finally, 34.59% of the 23/24 crop is sold, which is 8.21% behind the 5-year average. Most of big farmers in Brazil have taken advantage of high basis z24 and have sold over 50% of 24 crop. 
  • Cotton seed has also been behind schedule. 21/22 sales is 8% behind the 5-year average. For 22/23 season, sales of cotton seed were behind 5-year average as far as 40% until mid-April, where it recovered significantly. 22/23 cotton seed sales is now 23.4% behind 5-year average and 13.52% behind 21/22 during same period. 
  • Brazilian exports are not are having a good performance. Since its poor performance in December 2022 compared to 5-year average, Brazil has been 44% behind schedule and have to sell on average 200,000 per month for the remaining marketing year to accomplish its export target (more on graph below). 
  • 2022/23 marketing year exports generated revenues of just over 2,300,000,000 dollars, which is about US$2,055 per tonne. So far the average fixation figure for a Brazilian producer has been US$0.93 cents per pound, including the basis.
  • Cotton producers remain concerned about cost of production. According to Imea, the first estimate of cost of production for 23/24 crop shows a decrease of 8.68% in effective operational cost (COE) compared with what was consolidated in the crop 22/23, and was estimated at R$ 16,849/ha. This decrease was influenced mainly by the fall of 28.11% in costs fertilizers costs.
  • Domestic consumption is estimated at 625 thousand tons in the 2022/23 season. 

Cotton CEPEA/ ESALQ - 8 days credit

Price is based ex warehouse in São Paulo 

Source: CEPEA 

Brazilian Monthly Export Sales Report

In thousand tonnes. 
Source: MDIC

NY CTZ23 vs. CEPEA/ ESALQ - 8 days

Source: Barchart & Cepea 

Brazilian Basis

Basis Santos Port from Mato Grosso CTZ23

Source: IMEA

Brazilian Supply & Demand

In Tonnes. 

Source: CONAB

Weekly Crop Condition Update

Updated on: 26/06/2023

Harvesting has started, mainly in Bahia and a few places in Mato Grosso. According to a survey carried out by Conab’s field teams, the crops have been developing well with adequate soil humidity, the cultivation treatments are being applied in several regions, and the crops do not present phytosanitary problems.

Source: Conab

Weather Condition for Main Producing Regions

Green: Favourable – Red: High restriction (lack of rain)

Source: Conab

Average FOB Santos Price Since 00

Cost of Production to Farmer

Methodology: The cost of production price varies according to the closing exchange rate of the previous day. Production and costs estimates are retrieved from Conab for Brazil, Mato Grosso and Bahia regions.

U.S Dollar/ Brazilian Real

The Brazilian Real reacted surprisingly well against the Dollar following the presidential election in Brazil, awarding former President Lula to be the next nation’s leader. However, after testing the 200-day moving average on a daily chart, the Dollar gained strength and began the year at R$5,4797 after statements made by Lula which challenges the spending cap, bringing uncertainty to investors. For the first 3 weeks of the year, the Dollar has depreciated more than 5,500 points against the Real and has broken significant support at the 5,0000 level. The test of last day of the month was an important close as the market tested psychological level, weekly and monthly close. A weaker dollar benefits the farmer input purchases but affects sales, as business is made in US$. 

Conab Updates

Both weekly and monthly updates are retrieved by Conab. 

Updated on: 28/04/2023

  • Domestic consumption and exports are at a reduced pace.
  • Cotton prices should continue under pressure due to the current level of international interest rates, high world inflation and fear of worsening the financial crisis.
  • The domestic market remains retracted and attentive to its external references.
  • Prices followed falls in oil and other commodities.
  • Exports are performing much lower when compared to the previous year.
  • Given the weak performance of export shipments and the very restricted domestic consumption, carry-over stock could become high.

Imea Updates

Updated on: 24/04/2023

In Mato Grosso, the prices of available seed and bran showed a decrease of 0.32% and 0.12% compared to the week, quoted on average at R$ 1,239.96/t and R$ 1,332.24/t, respectively. When compared with the same period last year, the reduction in the price of seed available is even greater, 23.49%. This scenario of decline in annual comparison is justified by the increased supply of the byproduct on the market, since the production of seed crop 21/22 was 12.94% higher than that recorded in the crop 20/21. In addition, reports of lower demand, especially by cattle ranchers, have sustained this decline in the state. Finally, with the dry season approaching, the expectation is that prices prices show a recovery in the coming weeks.

Cepea Updates

Updated on: 18/04/2023

  • Cotton prices continued to fade in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of April, returning to the level from January 2021, in nominal terms. Pressure came from the lower export parity value, high surplus from last season and expectations for an even higher output this year. With an increase in supply in the domestic market, agents expect exports to rise in the coming months.
  • The crop harvested in 2022 (21/22 season) was estimated by Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) at 2.554 million tons, while the national cotton consumption was forecast at 705 thousand tons. Considering the current domestic demand and the 1.2 million tons exported between August 2022 and the first week of April 2023, there is a surplus of 1.21 million tons to be exported.
  • As for demand in Brazil, it was weak in the first fortnight of April, while some sellers were willing to lower asking prices, fearing quotations will drop more steeply soon. As the new season nears, sales needs increase, either because of cash flow needs or for farmers to make room in warehouses.

Brazil Historical

Domestic prices, weekly news and special reports about the world's second largest exporter of Cotton

Planted Area

In Kg/Ha.


In Kg/Ha.


In Kg/Ha.

Cost of Production vs. Soybeans & Corn

Estimates in R$/ha.

Main Importers of Brazilian Cotton

In tonnes.